Friday, January 10, 2014
Middle East
Friday, January 10, 2014 by DXTR corporation
U.S. Considers Resuming Nonlethal Aid to Syrian Opposition
By MARK LANDLER
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is considering the resumption of nonlethal military aid to Syria’s
moderate opposition, senior administration officials said on Thursday,
even if some of it ends up going to the Islamist groups that are allied
with the moderates.
The
United States suspended the shipments last month after warehouses of
equipment were seized by the Islamic Front, a coalition of Islamist
fighters that broke with the American-backed Free Syrian Army and has
become an increasingly vital force in the nearly three-year-old uprising
against President Bashar al-Assad.
But
as a result of the rapidly shifting alliances within Syria’s fractured
opposition, some of the Islamists fought alongside the Free Syrian Army
in a battle against a major rebel group affiliated with Al Qaeda, the
Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.
That has eased American qualms about resuming the aid, the officials said.
Administration
officials insisted that no aid would be directly supplied to the
Islamic Front, an umbrella for half a dozen rebel groups who favor the
creation of an orthodox Islamic state in Syria. Aid would continue to be
funneled exclusively through the Supreme Military Council, the military
wing of moderate, secular Syrian opposition.
But
a senior administration official said: “You have to take into account
questions of how the S.M.C. and the Islamic Front are interacting on the
ground,” adding, “There’s no way to say 100 percent that it would not
end up in the hands of the Islamic Front.”
When
the State Department confirmed on Dec. 11 that it had cut off the aid,
officials made it clear that it could be restored. The United States
continued delivering humanitarian relief.
Among
the questions now being debated at the White House and the State
Department, officials said, is how to ensure that the aid flows only to
vetted organizations, and whether Islamist groups that receive any of it
could be compelled to pledge that they will not work with Al Qaeda.
The
deliberations are part of a broader effort to deal with a civil war
that has devolved into a splintered struggle in which jihadist groups —
some nationalist, others transnational — are increasingly leaving the
secular fighters on the sidelines.
The
administration has signaled a willingness to talk to the Islamic Front,
but an effort to arrange a meeting in December was rebuffed by the
group when the White House opted to send two midlevel State Department
officials rather than the ambassador to Syria, Robert S. Ford.
The
administration has also struggled to learn what precisely happened in
the early hours of Dec. 7, when the Islamic Front seized control of
warehouses in Atmeh, in northern Syria, that contained the
American-supplied aid, including food rations, medical kits and
vehicles.
The fighters also seized the headquarters of the Supreme Military Council.
The
Islamists said they were acting at the request of the council, which
feared an attack on the warehouses by the Islamic State of Iraq and
Syria. Since then, Mr. Ford has told analysts, the Islamic Front has
returned the warehouses and their contents, with the exception of light
arms and ammunition.
Under
the administration’s division of labor, the State Department is in
charge of supplying nonlethal aid, while the C.I.A. runs a covert
program to arm and train the Syrian rebels.
While
analysts said a decision to resume aid may encourage opposition groups
to attend the peace conference, it would be far short of what is
necessary to salvage the meeting — known as Geneva II but set to be held
in Montreux, a nearby Swiss city.
Opposition
groups are scheduled to meet on Jan. 17 to decide whether to attend the
conference. But the meeting’s stated goal — to chart a political
transition in Syria — seems more elusive than ever, given the recent
military gains made by Mr. Assad’s forces.
“The
larger questions are: What is the strategy for making the conference
itself successful? And how do the meetings in Switzerland serve an
overall strategy for Syria?” said Frederic C. Hof, a former State
Department official who has worked on political transition in Syria.
“Just
getting people to sit down and talk is too low a bar for success,” said
Mr. Hof, who is now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “It’s
almost subterranean.”
Other
experts said it would be harder for the administration to ensure that
none of its aid wound up in the hands of extremists, given how murky the
Syrian battlefield has become.
“The
administration has to determine whether the benefits exceed the risks,”
said Daniel Serwer, a professor of conflict management at the Johns
Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “It makes sense if it
will tip the scales away from Al Qaeda-type extremists. The Islamic
Front is likely to be the best antidote to them.”
But
there is also a political risk for the administration. Critics on
Capitol Hill would most likely protest any decision to supply aid to the
Islamic Front. They could cite historical examples, like the American
support for the Afghan Mujahedeen fighters in their war against the
Soviets in the 1980s, which planted the seeds for later terrorism
against the United States.
The
risk, some analysts said, is not that the American aid would end up in
the hands of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, but with the Nusra
Front, another powerful rebel group that the United States believes has
links to Al Qaeda but which many rebels view as an effective combatant
against Mr. Assad. The Nusra Front is not a part of the Islamic Front,
but it has close ties to some groups that are under the front’s
umbrella.
Still,
as other experts noted, the aid in question includes food rations and
pickup trucks, not tanks and bullets. None of it is likely to change the
trajectory of the conflict, which some experts said had fallen into a
kind of “territorial equilibrium,” in which neither the rebels nor Mr.
Assad’s forces have much to gain from further fighting.
“Given
where we are, given the state of the war, given that it’s nonlethal in
nature, there’s less downside risk,” said Andrew J. Tabler, an expert on
Syria and senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy. “It could lead to bigger and better things.”
Source:The New York Times
Tags:
Conflict
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